Banking jobs outlook in 2026: "Gangbusters" and "tepid"
If you look into the Bubble, our new anonymous community, you will see some dismay at the state of the financial services jobs market. "There are no jobs," says one respondent; not for students, not for experienced hires.
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Will this change in 2026? That depends on who you ask. Recruiters' prognosis is mixed.
"I am very bullish," insists one top macro-focused headhunter who operates both sides of the Atlantic. "Next year will be gangbusters. Banks and hedge funds have been making money and there's a shortage of people. It will be a mega-year; maybe not in Q,1 but in Q2."
At the other end of the scale, the New York-based head of a global search boutique predicts that hiring next year will be "tepid." It's not going to be like 2022, he says: it will be mostly replacement hiring in banks' front office roles, but automation and cutting in the middle and back office. The saving grace will be hedge funds, which he says will still be busy trying to pick off top trading talent, forcing banks to pay well in the coming bonus round.
“There’s still a war for talent," agrees Kumaran Surenthirathas at fixed income-focused Rosehill Search in London. "All banks want to hire the best and most appropriate candidates and people are always open to discussing a move. However, electronification is also exerting pressure on headcount and encouraging juniorisation in some areas of the market.”
If Goldman Sachs is right, 2026 will be a strong year for M&A. However, even M&A headhunters are not that bullish. "I don't see anything amazing coming," says one London M&A headhunter. "There will be selective hiring, but banks will also be clearing out dead wood and there will be cuts."
As JPMorgan's Marianne Lane made clear at yesterday's Goldman banking conference, costs are rising and banks are under pressure to keep a lid on them. Banks are also bound to automate and to implement AI solutions, but AI is itself expensive and is driving the need for cost savings elsewhere. Bank of America, for example, has spent $120bn on technology in the past 10 years; JPMorgan is spending $18bn on technology annually.
While banks are rewarding and hiring revenue generators, they are therefore taking out costs elsewhere to fund the AI frenzy. Goldman Sachs cut jobs last month. Citi is understood to have cuts planned for the New Year. HSBC is said to have cuts planned in the next week. At the same time, some hiring budgets for next year are still awaiting sign-off.
It may be a while before jobseekers in the Bubble have something to celebrate.
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